Follow credit, households, housing, lending, jobs and market risk through dated public data.
Direction counts cover 12 current series with a comparable earlier reading. The three Treasury measures provide context. Some financial indexes overlap, so counts are not independent confirmations or a combined stress score.
Unusually large moves relative to each series’ earlier changes. Each move covers the observation periods shown; quarterly series use a quarterly comparison.
Stronger deterioration than about 97.9% of earlier comparable changes · 2545 earlier comparisons
Observation: 5 Nov 2026 · Source checked 7 Nov 2026Cboe · via FRED · Original series ↗
Showing 15 indicators · 12 eligible directional comparisons in this view. Open a reading for its chart, observed values and explanation.
Observation: Week ending 30 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · FRED · NFCI ↗
Combines money, debt, equity and banking conditions. Positive values indicate tighter-than-average conditions in the source index; negative values indicate looser conditions.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 30 Oct 2026 | -0.459 | |
| Week ending 23 Oct 2026 | -0.467 | |
| Week ending 16 Oct 2026 | -0.477 | |
| Week ending 9 Oct 2026 | -0.487 | |
| Week ending 2 Oct 2026 | -0.498 | |
| Week ending 25 Sept 2026 | -0.51 | |
| Week ending 18 Sept 2026 | -0.522 | |
| Week ending 11 Sept 2026 | -0.532 | |
| Week ending 4 Sept 2026 | -0.54 | |
| Week ending 28 Aug 2026 | -0.545 | |
| Week ending 21 Aug 2026 | -0.547 | |
| Week ending 14 Aug 2026 | -0.546 |
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · Retrieved through FRED · NFCI. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Week ending 30 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · FRED · NFCICREDIT ↗
The credit component of the Chicago Fed index. Higher values indicate tighter credit conditions. It overlaps with the overall NFCI and is not an independent confirmation.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 30 Oct 2026 | 0.002 | |
| Week ending 23 Oct 2026 | -0.004 | |
| Week ending 16 Oct 2026 | -0.01 | |
| Week ending 9 Oct 2026 | -0.018 | |
| Week ending 2 Oct 2026 | -0.025 | |
| Week ending 25 Sept 2026 | -0.033 | |
| Week ending 18 Sept 2026 | -0.04 | |
| Week ending 11 Sept 2026 | -0.047 | |
| Week ending 4 Sept 2026 | -0.052 | |
| Week ending 28 Aug 2026 | -0.056 | |
| Week ending 21 Aug 2026 | -0.058 | |
| Week ending 14 Aug 2026 | -0.058 |
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · Retrieved through FRED · NFCICREDIT. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Q2 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · FRED · DRCCLACBS ↗
Seasonally adjusted delinquency rate on credit-card loans at all commercial banks. Quarterly reporting arrives with a lag and does not cover every type of household credit.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.85% | |
| Q1 2026 | 2.91% | |
| Q4 2025 | 2.95% | |
| Q3 2025 | 2.99% | |
| Q2 2025 | 3.04% | |
| Q1 2025 | 3.05% | |
| Q4 2024 | 3.08% | |
| Q3 2024 | 3.2% | |
| Q2 2024 | 3.22% | |
| Q1 2024 | 3.17% | |
| Q4 2023 | 3.1% | |
| Q3 2023 | 2.95% |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Retrieved through FRED · DRCCLACBS. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Q2 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · FRED · DRSFRMACBS ↗
Seasonally adjusted delinquency rate on single-family residential mortgages booked in US domestic offices of commercial banks. It is not the delinquency rate on every US mortgage.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 1.86% | |
| Q1 2026 | 1.88% | |
| Q4 2025 | 1.79% | |
| Q3 2025 | 1.78% | |
| Q2 2025 | 1.78% | |
| Q1 2025 | 1.77% | |
| Q4 2024 | 1.77% | |
| Q3 2024 | 1.74% | |
| Q2 2024 | 1.73% | |
| Q1 2024 | 1.71% | |
| Q4 2023 | 1.7% | |
| Q3 2023 | 1.72% |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Retrieved through FRED · DRSFRMACBS. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: September 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
US Census Bureau / HUD · FRED · HOUST ↗
Seasonally adjusted annual rate of privately owned housing units started. A lower reading indicates weaker construction activity; the annualised figure is not that month’s actual number of homes.
Lower readings are treated as weaker activity for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 1,221 | |
| August 2026 | 1,288 | |
| July 2026 | 1,369 | |
| June 2026 | 1,439 | |
| May 2026 | 1,182 | |
| April 2026 | 1,414 | |
| March 2026 | 1,522 | |
| February 2026 | 1,346 | |
| January 2026 | 1,385 | |
| December 2025 | 1,378 | |
| November 2025 | 1,319 | |
| October 2025 | 1,273 |
US Census Bureau / HUD · Retrieved through FRED · HOUST. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Q4 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · FRED · DRTSCILM ↗
Net percentage of domestic banks tightening commercial and industrial loan standards for large and middle-market firms. A negative reading means net easing. The quarter identifies the survey round, not a full quarter of lending volumes.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | 1.7% | |
| Q3 2026 | 0% | |
| Q2 2026 | 8.1% | |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | |
| Q4 2025 | 6.5% | |
| Q3 2025 | 9.5% | |
| Q2 2025 | 18.5% | |
| Q1 2025 | 6.2% | |
| Q4 2024 | 0% | |
| Q3 2024 | 7.9% | |
| Q2 2024 | 15.6% | |
| Q1 2024 | 14.5% |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Retrieved through FRED · DRTSCILM. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Week ending 31 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
US Employment and Training Administration · FRED · ICSA ↗
Seasonally adjusted new unemployment-insurance claims, week ending Saturday. Higher claims can indicate weakening labour conditions; one week can be noisy.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 31 Oct 2026 | 189,000 | |
| Week ending 24 Oct 2026 | 195,000 | |
| Week ending 17 Oct 2026 | 195,000 | |
| Week ending 10 Oct 2026 | 200,000 | |
| Week ending 3 Oct 2026 | 198,000 | |
| Week ending 26 Sept 2026 | 199,000 | |
| Week ending 19 Sept 2026 | 198,000 | |
| Week ending 12 Sept 2026 | 198,000 | |
| Week ending 5 Sept 2026 | 207,000 | |
| Week ending 29 Aug 2026 | 207,000 | |
| Week ending 22 Aug 2026 | 204,000 | |
| Week ending 15 Aug 2026 | 207,000 |
US Employment and Training Administration · Retrieved through FRED · ICSA. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Week ending 24 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
US Employment and Training Administration · FRED · CCSA ↗
Seasonally adjusted continuing unemployment-insurance claims. Its latest reference week can differ from initial claims; compare the dates on each series.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 24 Oct 2026 | 1,718,000 | |
| Week ending 17 Oct 2026 | 1,695,000 | |
| Week ending 10 Oct 2026 | 1,722,000 | |
| Week ending 3 Oct 2026 | 1,703,000 | |
| Week ending 26 Sept 2026 | 1,714,000 | |
| Week ending 19 Sept 2026 | 1,699,000 | |
| Week ending 12 Sept 2026 | 1,712,000 | |
| Week ending 5 Sept 2026 | 1,717,000 | |
| Week ending 29 Aug 2026 | 1,765,000 | |
| Week ending 22 Aug 2026 | 1,775,000 | |
| Week ending 15 Aug 2026 | 1,771,000 | |
| Week ending 8 Aug 2026 | 1,796,000 |
US Employment and Training Administration · Retrieved through FRED · CCSA. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: October 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
US Bureau of Labor Statistics · FRED · UNRATE ↗
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the household survey. This is a monthly labour-market measure and can lag changes in financial markets.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 4.1% | |
| September 2026 | 4.2% | |
| August 2026 | 4.1% | |
| July 2026 | 4.1% | |
| June 2026 | 4.2% | |
| May 2026 | 4.3% | |
| April 2026 | 4.3% | |
| March 2026 | 4.3% | |
| February 2026 | 4.4% | |
| January 2026 | 4.3% | |
| December 2025 | 4.4% | |
| November 2025 | 4.5% |
US Bureau of Labor Statistics · Retrieved through FRED · UNRATE. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 7 Nov 2026, 19:47 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Cboe · via FRED · FRED · VIXCLS ↗
Option-implied expected near-term equity volatility. A higher value implies greater expected volatility; it does not predict the direction of share prices. Copyright Cboe; source citation retained.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | 28.18 | |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 16.61 | |
| 3 Nov 2026 | 20.83 | |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 21.15 | |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 19.42 | |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 17.2 | |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 16.91 | |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 17.52 | |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 18.39 | |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 19.45 | |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 19.03 | |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 16.68 |
Cboe · via FRED · Retrieved through FRED · VIXCLS. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Week ending 30 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · FRED · STLFSI4 ↗
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index combines 18 weekly market measures. Zero represents the source’s historical average. It shares inputs with other financial indicators.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 30 Oct 2026 | -0.5224 | |
| Week ending 23 Oct 2026 | -0.5842 | |
| Week ending 16 Oct 2026 | -0.634 | |
| Week ending 9 Oct 2026 | -0.7203 | |
| Week ending 2 Oct 2026 | -0.4612 | |
| Week ending 25 Sept 2026 | -0.8059 | |
| Week ending 18 Sept 2026 | -0.6996 | |
| Week ending 11 Sept 2026 | -0.8474 | |
| Week ending 4 Sept 2026 | -0.7889 | |
| Week ending 28 Aug 2026 | -0.8492 | |
| Week ending 21 Aug 2026 | -0.8086 | |
| Week ending 14 Aug 2026 | -0.8259 |
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Retrieved through FRED · STLFSI4. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: Week ending 30 Oct 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 6 Nov 2026, 19:19 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · FRED · NFCIRISK ↗
The Chicago Fed NFCI risk component captures volatility and funding risk. Higher values indicate tighter risk conditions. This component overlaps with the overall NFCI.
Higher readings are treated as deterioration for the direction comparison.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Week ending 30 Oct 2026 | -0.526 | |
| Week ending 23 Oct 2026 | -0.538 | |
| Week ending 16 Oct 2026 | -0.552 | |
| Week ending 9 Oct 2026 | -0.565 | |
| Week ending 2 Oct 2026 | -0.578 | |
| Week ending 25 Sept 2026 | -0.592 | |
| Week ending 18 Sept 2026 | -0.604 | |
| Week ending 11 Sept 2026 | -0.613 | |
| Week ending 4 Sept 2026 | -0.62 | |
| Week ending 28 Aug 2026 | -0.624 | |
| Week ending 21 Aug 2026 | -0.625 | |
| Week ending 14 Aug 2026 | -0.623 |
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago · Retrieved through FRED · NFCIRISK. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: 5 Nov 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 7 Nov 2026, 19:47 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · FRED · DGS10 ↗
Ten-year constant-maturity Treasury yield. Both rising and falling yields can have different causes, so this series receives historical context rather than a better/worse label.
Changes receive no simple stress direction.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | 4.84% | |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 4.9% | |
| 3 Nov 2026 | 4.95% | |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 4.91% | |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.94% | |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 4.98% | |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.05% | |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 4.99% | |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 5% | |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 5% | |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 4.96% | |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 5.13% |
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Retrieved through FRED · DGS10. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: 6 Nov 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 7 Nov 2026, 19:47 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / US Treasury · FRED · T10Y2Y ↗
Difference between ten-year and two-year Treasury yields. A negative value is an inversion. Steepening can accompany different economic regimes, so it is excluded from deterioration counts.
Changes receive no simple stress direction.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 0.35 | |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 0.38 | |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 0.32 | |
| 3 Nov 2026 | 0.34 | |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 0.32 | |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.38 | |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.37 | |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.38 | |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 0.29 | |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 0.32 | |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 0.31 | |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 0.31 |
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / US Treasury · Retrieved through FRED · T10Y2Y. Source notes & full history ↗
Observation: 6 Nov 2026
Source checkedLast successful check: 7 Nov 2026, 19:47 UKThe observation period can be older than the source check. Source health →
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / US Treasury · FRED · T10Y3M ↗
Difference between ten-year Treasury and three-month Treasury yields. A negative value is an inversion. It is descriptive context, not a recession probability or a directional trading instruction.
Changes receive no simple stress direction.
| Period | Source observation date | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | 0.67 | |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 0.67 | |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 0.69 | |
| 3 Nov 2026 | 0.74 | |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 0.7 | |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.78 | |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 0.8 | |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.87 | |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 0.77 | |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 0.78 | |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 0.78 | |
| 22 Oct 2026 | 0.74 |
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis / US Treasury · Retrieved through FRED · T10Y3M. Source notes & full history ↗
The historical position compares the latest value with earlier observations from the preceding ten years. It uses 100 × (earlier values below the reading + half the tied values) / earlier observation count. The latest reading is excluded from that comparison. A high position means a high raw reading; it is not a probability of a crash.
Direction compares the latest reading with an actual reading about one month earlier, or three months for quarterly series. Daily and weekly series use 30 and 90 calendar days; monthly and quarterly series use calendar months. The nearest observation on or before the target is accepted within seven days (eight for weekly data). Gaps stay missing. The two actual periods are displayed.
Material deterioration requires a non-zero move towards more stress in the upper 10% of earlier direction-adjusted changes; unusual easing uses the lower 10%. The same trailing ten-year window is used, excluding the latest change. Minimum comparison counts are 126 daily, 52 weekly, 24 monthly or 20 quarterly observations. A flat historical distribution has a midpoint rank for tied readings.
These calculations use the latest available, potentially revised history. They do not reconstruct first-release vintages or backtested trading results. Correlated indicators are not added into an overall score. Treasury yields and yield curves receive context without a better/worse direction.
Daily series are checked after 24 hours, weekly and monthly series after seven days, quarterly series after 30 days. A shared daily claim limits the collector to two FRED requests per day, requesting only due series. Source-check intervals and observation periods are separate. Charts show up to the selected number of years and at most 202 sampled observations, preserving bucket highs/lows. The table retains exact recent source values.
For credit spreads with separate redistribution restrictions, inspect the ICE BofA high-yield spread at its source ↗. This page uses the attributed Chicago Fed credit measure.