BUSINESS / MARKETS / POLITICS8 November 2026
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Technical analysis

Technical analysis: make the chart testable

Trend, levels, momentum and volume with clear limits and invalidation.

4 min readReviewed 26 Oct 2026
KEEP THIS IN MIND

Use a few defined observations. Several indicators derived from the same prices are not independent confirmation.

Start with price structure

Choose a timeframe appropriate to the research question. Describe whether price is advancing, declining or ranging, using explicit rules rather than a line redrawn after each move. Compare with a longer timeframe before interpreting a short-lived break.

Treat support and resistance as areas where reactions occurred, not barriers the market must respect. Record what would invalidate the level and distinguish an intrabar excursion from a completed close.

Know what the tool measures

A moving average smooths past prices and therefore lags them. Its period changes its responsiveness. RSI is a bounded momentum measure; conventional 30 and 70 reference levels do not automatically mean buy and sell. RSI can remain extreme in a persistent trend.

Volume can help describe participation, but its meaning depends on the feed and market. A fund's traded volume is not the same thing as trading across every underlying holding.

Require a falsifiable rule

Write the observation, comparison period and failure condition before looking at the result. Compare with a simple baseline and allow for transaction costs. Test rules on a later period that was not used to choose the parameters.

A chart can organise an entry hypothesis or show how prices responded to information. It cannot establish business value, future earnings or the reliability of an underlying data release by itself.

TRY IT IN YOUR RESEARCH NOTES

Use one chart, three observations

Record the price structure, one clearly defined level and one momentum or volume observation. Add one piece of conflicting evidence. Leave off any extra indicator that does not answer a different question.

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Educational notes, not personalised financial advice. Hypothetical examples and chart shapes are not performance claims or trading signals.